Three days before the federal election, new ABS data confirmed that Australian wage growth is still stuck at historically weak rate (up just 2.4% year over year to March 2022). One day later, another ABS release showed another small decline in the unemployment rate, which is now below 4%. Most of the decline was due to people leaving the labour market (rather than new jobs being created). But the data is being cited by the current government as a sign that better wage growth is just around the corner.
In this commentary, CFW Associate Dr Anis Chowdhury explains why a lower unemployment rate, on its own, is not a solution to Australia's labour market and social challenges.Read more
The release of the March Wage Price Index confirms what a horror year it has been for workers. While inflation in the past 12 months rose 5.1%, wages grew just 2.4%. Even worse, in the past year the price of non-discretionary items rose 6.6%, meaning for those on low wages, who spend more of their incomes on essential items, real wages would have fallen even more than the 2.6% average fall.
Labour market policy director, Greg Jericho notes in his Guardian Australia column that the fall in real wages has been the worst since the introduction of the GST and in the first 3 months of this year real wages fell 1.5%.
So steep has been the fall that real wages are now back essentially to where they were at the time of the September 2013 election.
The fall highlights that talk about Australia having recovered from the pandemic ignores the most basic aspect of the economy - the living standards of workers from their wages.
The fall is such that even with the RBA's estimates of solid wage growth recovery over the next two years, should Australia return to pre-pandemic trend real wages growth, it would take till 2031 to recover workers purchasing power back to the levels of 2020.
That would we a lost decade of living standards.
The debate over wages, prices, and living standards heated up even further this week, with the release of new ABS statistics showing continuing weakness in wages despite the acceleration of inflation. The latest data from the ABS Wage Price Index (WPI) shows nominal wages grew just 2.4% over the 12 months ending in March. That is less than half as fast as consumer prices grew (5.1%), producing the biggest decline in real wages this century.
Our Centre continues to develop resources documenting the dimensions and causes of declining real wages, and countering the claim that trying to protect real living standards (by boosting wages at least as fast as inflation) will somehow cause hyperinflation and economic ruin.Read more
The Fair Work Commission recently announced important changes to the SCHADS Award (which sets minimum standards for workers in home care, disability services, community agencies, and other vital services) as part of its award review process. This culminates several years of research and advocacy by unions representing workers in these sectors, aimed at improving job quality and stability in these vital but undervalued positions. The Centre for Future Work provided expert testimony to the Commission as part of its review.
We recently hosted a special webinar to discuss the Commission's changes, their significance, and what comes next in the struggle to improve and properly value work in human services.Read more
Almost one in five Australians (and a higher proportion of young workers) acknowledge working with potential COVID symptoms over the course of the pandemic, according to new opinion research published by the Centre for Future Work.
The research confirms the public health dangers of Australia’s existing patchwork system of sick leave and related entitlements.Read more
The current election campaign has seen the two major parties put forward housing policies, both of which to varying degrees are aimed at the demand side of the equation.
The problem is that for many decades, housing policies have overwhelmingly been geared toward increasing demand within the private-sector housing market. This has only served to pump prices and make it harder for first-home buyers to enter the market, and also increasing the age that people are buying their first home.
Policy Director, Greg Jericho, writes in a column for Guardian Australia, that we need to instead focus on the supply side - increasing the stock of housing - and we also need to be bold enough to look outside the typical private-sector model.
The Australia Institutes' Nordic Policy Centre has proposed a number of measures that have been pursued in Norway, Sweden and Finland that show the solution to housing affordability is not about creating tax distortions that benefit homeowners or which serve only to transfer money from low-income people to the wealthy, but instead treats housing as a need rather than just a wealth-building asset.
After decades of failure, the solution to housing affordability needs to be something other than more policies designed to lift housing prices.Read more
In 2021 the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety recommended that gig work, independent contracting and other ‘indirect’ employment arrangements be restricted in the publicly-funded aged care sector.
The Royal Commission found that, to develop the ‘well led, skilled, career-based, stable and engaged workforce’ required to provide high quality aged care, service providers should be directly employing aged care workers as employees.
Rather than adopting this recommendation, the Federal Government referred the matter to a Productivity Commission inquiry.
The Centre for Future Work made a submission to the Productivity Commission's inquiry into Aged Care Employment, in which we argue there is ample evidence to show there are unacceptable risks and consequences for both care workers and people receiving care, where workers are engaged as independent contractors, including as gig workers.Read more
This week the election campaign has turned to discussion about the increase to the minimum wage, with suggestions that an increase either in line with the curent rate of inflation of 5.1% or marginally above it (such as the ACTU's proposal of a 5.5% increase) would bring about a return to 1970s style wage sprials.
Labour market policy director, Greg Jericho, in his column in Guardian Australia, however notes that wages should grow faster than inflation, and so long as real wages are not outpacing productivity growth then such rises are not exerting any inflationary pressure. He also shows that given the recent estimates for inflation by the Reserve Bank, a 5.1% increase would not be enough to prevent the minimum wage falling in real terms over the next financial year.
The problem is not that wages have been fuelling inflation, but that for the past 20 years real wages have risen slower than productivity .
We need to change the debate from a reflex that assumes low wages is the ideal to realising that given workers are the economy they should be rewarded fairly for their efforts and improvements in productivity.
You cannot say the economy is healthy if real wages are falling, and most certainly not if the lowest paid in Australia are seeing their living standards decline.Read more
A comprehensive review of Australian wage trends indicates that wage growth is likely to remain stuck at historically weak levels despite the dramatic disruptions experienced by the Australian labour market through the COVID-19 pandemic. The report finds that targeted policies to deliberately lift wages are needed to break free of the low-wage trajectory that has become locked in over the past nine years.
The report, The Wages Crisis: Revisited, authored by three of Australia’s leading labour policy experts: Professor Andrew Stewart from Adelaide Law School, Dr Jim Stanford from the Centre for Future Work, and Associate Professor Tess Hardy from Melbourne Law School, updates analysis and recommendations from their 2018 edited book, The Wages Crisis in Australia.Read more
This report from the Carmichael Centre argues that Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC) services should be treated as a strategic industry of national importance – not just a ‘market’, and not just a ‘cost’ item on government budgets.
Building a stronger, more accessible, and high-quality ECEC system is not just a top-ranking social priority for several reasons:
- The ECEC sector supports hundreds of thousands of jobs.
- It directly creates billions of dollars of value-added in the Australian economy.
- It generates further demand for other sectors – both upstream, in its own supply chain, and downstream in consumer goods and services industries that depend on the buying power of ECEC workers.
- It facilitates work and production throughout the rest of Australia’s economy, by allowing parents to work – although that goal would be much better achieved if Australia had a more comprehensive, universal, and public ECEC system.
- ECEC enhances the long-term potential of Australia’s economy, and all of society, by providing young children with high-quality education opportunities – that are proven to expand their lifetime learning, employment, and income outcomes, and enrich their families and communities.
Australia’s current market-based system for ECEC funding and service provision is incapable of meeting the needs of parents, families, and the broader economy. A drift to the market-based provision of ECEC services has undermined public provision in Australia and diminished the quality of service and the conditions under which it is delivered.
From this crisis-ridden starting point, the staff recruitment and retention challenge in ECEC will become much worse, if in fact Australia were to make a long-term commitment to expand ECEC provision to adequately meet the needs of working parents (and the entire economy).
Much public debate over the viability of expanded ECEC, putting Australia on a par with other leading industrial nations, has focused on the fiscal dimensions of that undertaking: how would we pay for it?
If Australia is going to expand its ECEC system in line with the needs of working parents and employers, increasing funding to the Nordic-level average for ECEC must be considered, and ramping up high-quality vocational education for ECEC workers must be an immediate and highest-order priority to meet the workforce needs of expanded ECEC coverage.Read more